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Economy - News & Views
Our Opinion



 April 30, 2012


RBI Makes a Move - Will the Government Reposition?...Surprising analysts and the market alike, the RBI reduced its key policy rate, the repo rate under the LAF, by a higher than expected 50 basis points to 8%. If the Government in turn can make a quick move to push forward important reforms measures, together it can provide tremendous boost to India’s wilting economy hurt by weak global growth. RBI’s decision could have been guided by the fact that India's industrial output not only rose a much slower-than expected 4.1% in February, the January figure was sharply revised downwards to a growth of 1.14% from 6.8% announced earlier.
 March 18, 2012
Some Facets of India's Union Budget for 2012-13..The budget mostly promised to reduce the nation’s fiscal deficit and rein in costly subsidies and bring in critical reforms, but for the moment given the political situation garnering the necessary revenue has been done through increases in indirect taxation. Though allocation to critical sectors have been increased there is no immediate focus on putting the economy on a high growth trajectory.




News - Indian Economy
News - Global Economy
Industrial output contracted by 3.5% in March
Manufacturing production shrank by 4.4 percent in March while output of capital goods such as factory equipment -- an important investment measure and portent of future activity -- contracted by 21 percent. For the financial year ending March 2012, industrial production expanded by just 2.8 percent, sharply below its 8.2 percent growth the previous year.


WPI inflation rises to 7.23% in April
Prices of food articles rose 10.49% in April, compared with 9.94% the previous month; prices of vegetable soared 60.97%, and that of egg, meat and fish 17.54%. Manufactured products, with a weight of nearly 65%, inched up to 5.12% in the last month from 4.87% in March.

RBI takes measures to ease foreign currency flows
To augment foreign currency inflows to banks and facilitate their foreign currency loans to exporters the interest rate ceiling on Foreign Currency Non-Resident [FCNR (B)] deposits of banks has been raised from 125 basis points above the corresponding LIBOR/Swap rates to 200 bps for maturity period of 1 year to less than 3 years, and to 300 bps for maturity period of 3 to 5 years. The ceiling rate on export credit in foreign currency which was constraining the availability of credit to exporters in foreign currency has been deregulated by allowing banks to freely determine their interest rates on such credit.

Trade deficit at 7-month low on weaker imports
Merchandise exports rose a modest 3.2% from a year earlier to $24.5 billion, import growth decelerated 3.8% to $37.9 billion mainly because of a sharp slide in imports of gold and silver. A slowdown in petroleum imports also helped keep the overall import growth under check.

U.S. logs first monthly budget surplus in 42 months
The government notched a larger-than-expected $59.12 billion surplus last month, compared with a $40.39 billion deficit in April 2011, on a rise in tax receipts and a drop in government spending. Even so, the cumulative budget deficit for the first seven months of the fiscal year totaled $719.86 billion, compared with a shortfall of $869.81 billion over the same period in fiscal year 2011.

US job growth slows for second straight month with just 115,000 jobs added
The recovery in the jobs market has stalled for a second month as the US added just 115,000 new positions even as the unemployment dropped to 8.1%.

Euro zone economy avoids recession
Euro zone GDP was stable recording no change in Q1from Q4 2011; Germany surprised with 0.5% growth even as the French economy stalled and Italy reported contracting 0.8%.

Euro zone industrial production falls back in March
Industrial production in the Euro zone fell by 0.3% on a 8.5% fall in energy production. Spanish production fell by 1.8%, while that in Greece contracted by 1%. Production in Germany rose by 1.3%.

UK manufacturing output rose 0.9% in March
The wider measure of industrial production fell 0.3%, due to a drop in oil and gas production. Sectors including chemicals, transport equipment, computer and electronics were behind the recovery.

China cuts banks’ reserve requirements
It is the third time the central bank has made such a move in six months. It follows recent economic data suggesting that the Chinese economy is slowing down, as in April industrial output growth slowed to 9.3%—the slowest rate since 2009.

China Economy by Numbers—April



Key Reports
RBI's Annual Policy Statement for 2012-13
WORLD ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL SURVEYS, April 2012—IMF
Economic Survey & Union Budget 2012-13
Global Economic Prospects January 2012—World Bank
World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP 2012)—UN

Developments in India's Balance of Payments during October-December 2011

Global Crisis — Timeline & Updates (BBC)
           




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Our Terminology
Our Terminology...
Bank rate is the standard rate at which the Reserve Bank buys or re-discount bills of exchange or other commercial paper.
It is used as a penal rate which the banks have to pay for their failure to meet the mandatory CRR and SLR.. more

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Economy - Indicators

Indian Economy
GDP

6.10% - Q3, 2011-12

6.90% -
Q2, 2011-12


IIP

Revised All-India IIP
-3.5% (March, 2012)

4.1% (February, 2012)
#:Base 2004-05=100

WPI Inflation(%)

Highlights of
Revised WPI

All Commodty: 7.23%*(Apr, 2012)
All Commodty: 6.89%*(Mar, 2012)
*: Provisional; *: Revised
CPI Inflation(%)
7.65% (All India);7.38% (Rural Areas); 8.25% (Urban Areas)
(January, 2012)
Interest Rates
CRR: 4.75% p.a (wef 09 March, 2012)
Bank Rate: 9.00% p.a.(wef  17 April, 2012)
Reverse Repo Rate: 7.00% (wef  17 April, 2012)
Repo Rate: 8.00%
(wef  17 April, 2012)
CMR/CBLO
(April 27, 2012): 8.08/7.52

Exchange Rate
53.38 (Dollar), 69.31 (Euro)
86.18
(Pound),  66.90 (Yen)
[May 07, 2012 to May 11,
2012, weekly average]
Updated on 16 May, 2012
See Terminology section for explanations and notes.


Global Economy 
(YOY %)
Change
US
UK
Euro
Japan
China
GDP
  2.1
Q1-2012
nil
Q1-2012
0.7
Q4-2011
-0.6
Q4-2011
8.1
Q1-2012
CPI
2.7  Mar2012 3.5
Mar2012
2.7
Mar2012
0.5
Mar
2012
3.6
Mar2012
IIP
3.8
Mar2012
-2.3
Feb2012
-1.5
Feb2012
13.9
Mar2012
11.9
Mar2012
Emp
8.1
Apr2012
8.3
Jan2012
10.9
Mar2012
4.5
Mar2012
   4.1  Q1-2012
Updated on 14 May, 2012
Note: Emp- Unemployment Rate (%)



GDP Projections
India & Global

Updated on 02 May, 2012

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