Google
 
ECOFIN-SURGE.CO.IN
Home | About Ecofin-Surge | Database | Terminology | Publications | Comments & Queries | Ecofin-Kiosk | Contact Us | Sitemap


Welcome to Surge Research Support

Make use of our vast DATABASE and visit our PUBLICATION list. Clear your doubts with our well explained TERMINOLOGY

Economy - News & Views
Our Opinion


 March 17, 2013

A Responsible Budget within a Restricted Space albeit some Worries on the Expenditure-Revenue Math...The Indian Union Budget for fiscal year 2013-14 has been termed as a responsible budget under difficult circumstances, but a disappointment to those who were expecting extraordinary measures to jump-start the economy. Fiscal deficit in the current financial year has been contained to 5.2 per cent of GDP; this averts any immediate crisis in terms of a sovereign rating downgrade, but has led to a decade low quarterly GDP of 4.5% in the final quarter of 2012, with plan expenditure meant for developmental projects slashed by over rupees 90 thousand crore. With very little room for fiscal stimulus, the Budget has concentrated on infrastructure development and inclusive growth, the most demanding issues at present. Pressing issues like stimulating domestic savings and channeling those to the capital market have also been addressed within the Budget.


 January 31, 2013

RBI takes pro-growth measures on decelerating growth as inflation expectations moderate... The RBI, which had clearly indicated an interest rate reduction at the start of 2013, took growth enhancing measures after a period of 9 months in its third quarter review of monetary policy stating that it is now critical to arrest the loss of growth momentum. The policy repo rate and the Cash Reserve Ratio (CRR) have each been reduced by 0.25 percentage points to 7.75 per cent and 4 per cent respectively; the latter will inject approximately Rs.18,000 crore into the banking system. These measures ease borrowing costs and are expected to prompt banks to lower their lending interest rates, a transmission process which has already been started by some banks led by SBI, India’s largest lender.  The challenge is now on banks to manage their deposit and lending rates in a manner that stimulates lending as without affecting their net interest margins.


Our May-2013 issue of E-UpDates has just been published.


November 2012 issue as a sample copy

News - Indian Economy News - Global Economy

RBI cuts repo rate to 7.25%

The RBI cut its benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points for the third time since January, as growth slows and inflation showed signs of ebbing, but RBI said there is little room to ease monetary policy further. The forecasts—* Baseline GDP growth forecast for 2013-14 at 5.7 percent. * WPI inflation projection during 2013-14 at around 5.5 percent. * M3 growth projection for 2013-14 at 13 percent. * Credit growth projection at 15 percent, deposit growth at 14 percent. The policy measures—* Cuts repo rate by 25 basis points to 7.25 percent. * Reverse repo rate falls to 6.25 percent. * CRR unchanged at 4.00 percent. * MSF rate adjusted to 8.25 percent. * Bank rate adjusted to 8.25 percent with immediate effect.

IIP growth at 5-month high in March

IIP a measure of India’s factory output grew 2.5 per cent in March, the third straight month of increase after shrinking in eight months last year, indicating a moderate recovery in Indian factories. However, IIP data reveals that the Indian industry’s performance in 2012-13 is its worst showing in the past 20 years.March IIP was partly boosted by an improvement in exports and investments. While the manufacturing and electricity sectors grew by 3.2 per cent and 3.5 per cent, respectively, output in the mining sector contracted to -2.9 per cent. Capital goods output grew by 6.9 per cent.

India Inc. reports sluggish sales, flat profits in fourth quarter
Corporate results for the recently-concluded January-March quarter show that sales for 509 listed (non-bank, non-financial) companies that have so far declared results grew a meagre 6% y-o-y and net profits contracted over 4%. In September-December 2012, sales grew at 10% and net profit at 3% for the same companies. Profits have been expanding in the past four quarters as industrial raw materials such as steel, copper, plastics and packaging have become cheaper, but sales growth has been decelerating for several quarters now.

World Bank scales down India's growth forecast
As per the latest India Development Update of the World Bank, Indian economy would grow by to 6.1 per cent for the current fiscal. The rate is revised down from 7 per cent projected six months ago due to the decline in agriculture sector which is expected to grow at 2 per cent during 2013-14 against the previous estimate of 2.7 per cent despite normal monsoon projection.

Indicating that India's declining growth has bottomed out, IMF expects the country's GDP to improve to 5.7 per cent in 2013 and further to 6.2 per cent a year after. For Asia as a whole the economic growth is likely to be 5.7 per cent this calendar and 6 per cent in 2013, IMF said in its Regional Economic Outlook: Asia and Pacific' report. According to the report in India, monetary policy can best support growth by putting inflation on a clear downward trend.

Gold imports down 12 pc in April-February 2012-13
Gold imports declined 11.8 per cent to $50 bn in the April-February period of 2012-13 due to measures taken to curb the demand of the precious metal.


US Economy shows renewed weakness GDP expanded at a 2.5 percent annual rate, after growth nearly stalled in the fourth quarter. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose at a 3.2 percent pace - the fastest since the fourth quarter of 2010. Government spending has already been on a downward path contracted at a 4.1 percent pace as defense outlays dropped sharply for a second straight quarter. A 2 percent payroll tax cut expired at the start of the year and the budget sequester with $85 billion in mandatory spending cuts took effect at the beginning of March. Construction spending dropped to a seven-month low in March as public outlays recorded their largest drop since 2006, which could cause the first-quarter economic growth estimate to be trimmed. ISM survey shows that its index of manufacturing activity slipped to 50.7, down from 51.3 in March and the slowest pace this year. U.S. companies added just 119,000 jobs in April, the fewest in seven months according to a report by ADP. The Treasury Department says it could begin decreasing the size of some of its debt auctions in coming months based on an improving deficit situation that will allow it to pay back some of the national debt this quarter. Treasury said for the current April-June quarter it plans to pay down $35 billion of the national debt, the first time it has reduced the debt in six years.

Weakness in Eurozone The Markit PMI recorded 46.5 in April, indicating a drop in activity across the eurozone for the 19th time in the past 20 months, with both manufacturing and service output declining sharply. The data revealed that Germany, widely regarded as the most fiscally secure of the member states, was at risk of contagion from the struggling eurozone core, after it saw rates of business activity suffer the sharpest drop in six months. Meanwhile, France, which has one of the highest debt-to-GDP ratios in the region, saw its decline in business activity ease for the first time in four months.

UK shows signs of recovery  The UK avoided slipping into triple-dip recession as GDP rose 0.3 per cent (qoq), during the first quarter of 2013, following a contraction of 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2012. The higher than expected growth in output was driven by the service sector, which accounts for a large portion of the UK economy, together with a rebound in mining. The construction sector, long a weak spot in the UK economy, continued to weigh on growth. The Markit/CIPS Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 49.8 in April from an upwardly revised 48.6 in March, putting the sector within a whisker of the 50 line that separates growth from contraction. The housing market also showed signs of resilience; house prices inched down 0.1 percent in April from March, but rose 0.9 percent compared with a year ago, the best growth in 14 months, data from mortgage lender Nationwide showed.

QQME improves economic prospects for Japan CPI inflation remained in negative territory at the start of 2013, with the annual pace of decline accelerating to -0.5 per cent in March. However, prices rose on a month-ago basis and the forward-looking numbers improved, suggesting that March was probably the bottom of the deflationary cycle for the CPI series. In its latest monetary policy meeting in early-April 2013, the Bank of Japan announced the  introduction of “Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing”, with the aim of achieving the price stability target of a 2 per cent (yoy) rate of change in the CPI at the earliest possible time, with a time horizon of about two years. In order to raise inflation expectations by boosting asset prices, the BOJ will massively increase its holdings of Japanese Government bonds (JGB) and other securities. Correspondingly, the BOJ decided to switch the operation target from the overnight call rate to the monetary base, which the BOJ plans to double by the end of 2014. Most recent economic data releases, seem to point to a gradual pick-up in growth in Japan over 2013.


China Economy by Numbers - April 2013
Key Reports

Monetary Policy Statement 2013-14
Developments in India's Balance of Payments during October-December 2012
Mid Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2012-13
Union Budget 2013-14 & Economic Survey 2012-13
Third Quarter Review of Monetary Policy for 2012-13 - RBI
World Economic Situation and Prospects 2013 - UN
Global Economic Prospects (2013) - World Bank
Financial Stability Report - RBI
Asian Development Outlook 2012 Supplement—October
OECD Sovereign Borrowing Outlook 2012
World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP 2012)—UN
Global Crisis — Timeline & Updates (BBC)
         

Our Database
Make use of our vast database on Indian and Global economic indicators

See our data on
Indian Economy
Indian Financial Market

Global Economy


How to buy Dataset
To purchase our Datasets or to subscribe to our publications visit Ecofin-Kiosk or simply email us. We will mail you all the details.


Our Terminology


OMTs (Outright Monetary Transactions): The term used for the European Central Bank's programme of buying government bonds with maturities of between one and three years...
more

Our Publications
Subscribe to our Publications:
  E-UpDates
AtAGlance
, Trendtracker, MacroMileage.
Stay updated on the economy.
View the latest economic indicators of the World.


Connect with us
Ecofin Surge

Create Your Badge

Economy - Indicators

Indian Economy
GDP

4.50% - Q3, 2012-13
5.30%
- Q2, 2012-13
5.50% - Q1, 2012-13
IIP

Revised All-India IIP
2.5% (March, 2013)
0.6% (February, 2013)


#:Base 2004-05=100

WPI Inflation(%)

All Commodty:4.89% (Apr, 2013)
All Commodty: 5.96
%(Mar, 2013)
All Commodty:  6.84%(Feb, 2013)

CPI Inflation(%)
10.39% (All India);10.33% (Rural Areas); 10.38% (Urban Areas)
Provisional
(March, 2013)
Interest Rates
CRR: 4.00% p.a (wef  29 January, 2013)
Bank Rate: 8.25% p.a.(wef  03 May, 2013)

Reverse Repo Rate: 6.25%
(wef  03 May, 2013)
Repo Rate: 7.25%
(wef  03 May, 2013)
CMR/CBLO
: 7.21/ 7.25 (May 09, 2013)
Exchange Rate
54.31 (Dollar), 71.13 (Euro),
84.23  (Pound), 54.54 (Yen) [May 06, 2013 to May 10, 2013, weekly average]
Updated on17 May, 2013
See Terminology section for explanations and notes.
   
 Global Indicators on  27 April, 2013

Global Economy

US
UK
Euro
Japan
China
GDP
1.7
Q4-2012

0.6
Q1-2013
-0.9
Q4-2012
0.5
Q4-2012
7.7
Q1-2013
CPI
1.5
Mar 2013
2.8
Mar 2013
1.7
Mar 2013
-0.6
Feb
2013
2.1
Mar 2013
IIP
3.5
Mar 2013
-2.2
Feb 2013
-3.1
Feb 2013
-10.5
Feb 2013
8.9
Mar 2013
Emp
7.6
Mar 2013
7.9
Jan 2012
12.0
Feb 2013
4.3
Feb 2013
4.1  Q4-2012
Updated on 27 April, 2013
Emp : Unemployment Rate


GDP Projections
India & Global

17 March, 2013







Advertise with us
Create your own Ad

88 x 31
Micro bar
 120 x 60 Button
 125 x 125 Square button
234 x 60 Half banner
468 x 60 Full banner

We display Text Ads also.

We will place it in a suitable position on our homepage.
Contact us at ecofin.surge@gmail.com to discuss details.






Home    About Ecofin-surge   Database    Terminology    Comments & Queries    Ecofin-Kiosk    Contact Us    Site Map
©2011 Surge Research Support, All Rights Reserved. Best viewed in Mozilla Firefox