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Economy - News & Views
Our Opinion



 Jan 26, 2012


RBI addresses liquidity concerns; keeps key policy rates and inflationary expectations firmly anchored...Responding to an acute and prolonged liquidity crunch, the RBI in its recent Review of Monetary Policy has reduced the CRR (Cash Reserve Ratio, the amount of cash that banks have to mandatorily park with it) by 50 basis points from 6 per cent to 5.50 per cent of deposits, infusing about Rs. 32,000 crore into the banking system to mitigate the effects of net liquidity drainage from the system. For the last 4-5 months, commercial banks put together were borrowing Rs. 1-1.5 lakh crores on a daily basis from RBI. Since mid-October 2011, pressures on liquidity were acute despite injection of liquidity worth Rs. 70,000 crore, exacerbated by the forex market operations conducted by the Reserve Bank in response to a sharp depreciation of the Indian currency...

 Jan 17, 2012
Industrial production numbers do a 180 degree...India's industrial production growth rate was back in positive territory at 5.9 per cent yoy for November 2011 reversing the downtrend of the previous five months and rebounding from a 28-month low of -4.74 (revised from -5.09) per cent in the previous month. The Indices of Industrial Production for the Mining, Manufacturing and Electricity sectors for November 2011, registered yoy growth rates of - 4.4%, 6.6% and 14.6% respectively. The cumulative growth in the three sectors during this fiscal, April-November, 2011-12 over the corresponding period of 2010-11 was -2.5%, 4.1% and 9.5% respectively;over April-November 2011, IIP grew 3.8 per cent, as compared with 8.4 per cent growth seen in the same period in the previous year....







News - Indian Economy
News - Global Economy

WPI weekly release discontinued
The Ministry of Commerce and Industry announced discontinuing releasing weekly primary and food inflation data based on the Wholesale Price Index, as the figures were not portraying the "holistic" picture of the price situation.

Economic growth revised down marginally to 8.4 % for 2010-11
from the earlier estimate of 8.5 per cent. A major source of growth in the GDP has been from the transport… sector growing at 14.7 percent and services sector at 9.3 per cent. Agriculture growth has also been impressive at 7.8 per cent during the year 2010-11 against a mere 0.7 per cent in 2009-10. Manufacturing sector growth has decelerated from 9.7 percent in 2009-10 to 7.6 percent in 2010-11.  Increase in per capita income at constant (2004-05) prices, after discounting for inflation, was about 6.4 per cent in 2010-11. It was Rs. 35,993 in 2010-11, as against Rs. 33,843 in the previous year.

April-December fiscal deficit at $77.2 bn
or Rs. 3.81 lakh crore at 92.3 percent of the full-year target. During the same period in the last fiscal year, fiscal deficit was 44.9 percent of the budgeted target. Net tax receipts were Rs. 4.2 lakh crore and total expenditure was Rs. 8.96 lakh crore during the April-December period.

April-December trade deficit at $133.3 billion
as imports rose 30.4% to $350.9 billion, mostly due to higher international oil prices, while exports grew 25.8% to $217.6 billion, leaving the country with a worrying trade deficit.

US data provides a promising start for 2012
US economy expanded at a 2.8% in Q4 up from the 1.8% annual rate recorded in the previous quarter. Real GDP increased 1.7 percent year on year in 2011, compared with an increase of 3.0 percent in 2010. The economy created 243,000 jobs in January; unemployment rate dropped to near three year low of 8.3%. ISM survey indicated that the US manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in seven months in January, while the services index rose to 56.8 last month from a revised 53.0 in December, the highest level since February 2011. Recovery remains uncertain, confronted with a set of domestic and external headwinds, according to Fed Chairman.

Eurozone unemployment ends 2011 at record high of 10.4 percent
Countries at the front line of Europe’s current financial turmoil, such as Greece and Spain, are suffering record rates of unemployment. Spain’s unemployment stands at a staggering 22.9 percent and Greece’s is not far behind at 19.2 percent. In Spain unemployment among people aged under 25 is as high as 48.7 percent. Germany’s unemployment rate is at a post-unification low of 5.5 per cent.

Japan's industrial production rebounded in December
and rose 4 percent from the previous month with gains from increases in output of cars, mobile phones and semiconductor manufacturing equipment.  The strong yen also continues to weigh on the country's exporters, with the dollar remaining near its post-war low of ¥75.31 reached in end-October. December household spending rose 0.5% year on year, but Housing starts also declined a steep 7.3% in December from a year earlier.


Key Reports

World Economic Outlook Update January 2012—IMF

Global Economic Prospects January 2012—World Bank
World Economic Situation and Prospects (WESP 2012)—UN
Developments in India's Balance of Payments during July-September 2011
RBI's Financial Stability Report: December 2011
Mid Year Review 2011-2012—Ministry of Finance
RBI's Second Quarter Review of Monetary Policy 2011-12
Global Crisis — Timeline & Updates (BBC)
Global Financial Stability Report (GFSR September 2011)—IMF

Fiscal Monitor (September 2011)—IMF

Economic Outlook 2011-12 by Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister
RBI's Annual Policy Statement for the Year 2011-12
           



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Economy - Indicators

Indian Economy
GDP
6.90% - Q2, 2011-12

8.40% - Q2, 2010-11 revised
 
IIP

Revised All-India IIP
5.9% (November, 2011)

-4.74% (October, 2011) revised
#:Base 2004-05=100

WPI Inflation(%)

Highlights of
Revised WPI

Food Articles: -1.03% (Jan 14, 2011)
PrimaryArticles:1.89% (Jan 14, 2011)
All Commodty: 7.47%*(Dec, 2011)

*: Provisional; *: Revised
Interest Rates
CRR: 5.50% p.a (wef 23 January, 2012)
Reverse Repo Rate: 7.50%
(wef  25 October, 2011)
Repo Rate: 8.50%
(wef  25 October, 2011)
CMR/CBLO
(Jan 24): 8.91/8.55

Exchange Rate
49.27 (Dollar), 64.80 (Euro)
  77.75
(Pound),  64.56 (Yen)
  [January 30, 2012 to February 03,
2012, weekly average]
Updated on 06 February, 2012
See Terminology section for explanations and notes.


Global Economy
(YOY %)
Change
US
UK
Euro
Japan
China
GDP
  1.5
Q3-2011
0.5
Q3-2011
1.4
Q3-2011
0.7
Q3-2011
8.9
Q4-2011
CPI
3.4  Nov2011 4.2
Dec2011
2.8
Dec2011
-0.5
Nov
2011
4.1
Dec2011
IIP
2.9
Dec2011
-3.1
Nov2011
-0.3
Nov2011
-4.0
Nov2011
12.8
Dec2011
Emp
8.5
Dec2011
8.4
Nov2011
10.3
Nov2011
4.5
Nov2011
   6.1
 
(2010)
Updated on 27 January, 2012
Note: Emp- Unemployment Rate (%)



GDP Projections
India & Global

Updated on 27 January, 2012

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